Professor of Constitutional, Alberto López Basaguren in an image file. / javier hernandez
Alberto López Basaguren (Basaruri, 1957), Professor of Constitutional Law at the University of the Basque Country, is considered by many experts as the ultimate authority on Spanish soberanistas processes Scotland and Quebec, which has continued in the field from universities Edinburgh and Montreal. He has also studied at Cambridge.
question. On September 18, Scotland holds a referendum on possible independence What is the impact on Spain and Catalonia and the Basque Country in particular?
Answer . With today’s communication, as fluid and profound effects on neighboring countries with similar problems are undeniable and inescapable. However, the Scottish case has legal peculiarities that differentiate it from the problems of Catalonia and Spain for the British constitution, unlike the Spanish, is not superior to ordinary laws. But there is a political background in the Scottish case which concerns us. Why is it possible in the UK which is not possible in Spain
P. That’s it. Why is it possible in the UK which is not possible in Spain
R. The Scottish case, as Québécois, are exceptions. But everyone, from the legal peculiarities, has responded to a political problem. Spain will also have to face the political challenge, although its legality is prevented. From political legitimacy, Spain is obliged to ask why the Spanish legal regulation is different. And if you must meet these challenges when UK and Canada have.
P. But you say that the Scottish case and Quebec are exceptions.
R. are legal exceptions and each has its own answer. In Canada, the Constitution does not say anything about a referendum on independence. But the system ended legally regulating the Clarity Act.
P. What if Scotland
R. The British Parliament has no constitutional limits as in Spain. It was accepted that, under the Statute of Scotland, could be done only if approved by referendum and the British Parliament. And this was done with the absolute majority of the Scottish Nationalist Party in regional elections, presented a political program with greater autonomy and independence referendum. The British Parliament, in turn, won the Scottish referendum could not be unilateral and should be negotiated
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The British Parliament turn, imposed the Scottish referendum could not be unilateral and should be negotiated
P. How did negotiation
R. The Scottish Government accepted all the conditions of the British Parliament on how to place the referendum, especially that there is a single question that it was not clear whether or accept Scotland’s independence. The British government, in turn, agreed that they could vote those aged 17 to 18 years. I think, however, that David Cameron made a mistake of precipitation by forcing independence referendum only because what they wanted was primarily Scottish greater autonomy.
P. Who do you think will win in Scotland on 18 yes or no?
R. Until a month ago there was a strong no position. But recent polls show up to if by a slip of the Labour vote because in the UK there has been a terrible fracture in his economic and social model, which has pushed some Labour voters to believe that independence can be a response to this social fracture. I think in the end, no win, which predominates among women and the elderly who fear for their pensions, but little difference. But the risk posed pointed bankruptcy of the social model, which is favoring the other.
P. And if you win the other. What?
R. a complex process of negotiation is open and very uncertain because it would be a very small difference. There is a precedent of Quebec and then the Supreme Court of Canada said that negotiations would not be just about the logistics of independence. Keep in mind that we are not facing a referendum on self-determination of a colony, recognized by international bodies. There are very important issues to negotiate. For example, currency, very important to the UK is not in the euro. The British Parliament has already predicted that if Scotland becomes independent stays out of British currency, which would be a serious setback for the Scots. There is also the problem of debt. For this reason, some understand that would need to hold a second referendum on the agreement after negotiation.
P. What if no wins?
R. As the difference on whether it will be small, there is a risk that begins as never ending. The Scottish National Party may be tempted to try to keep repeating the referendum to achieve the other. But it is very difficult for the Scottish Parliament to convene new referendum unilaterally without the consent of the British Parliament. The example of Quebec is revealing. Yes he narrowly lost. The independence believed that the next legislature would win. But the facts showed that their predictions failed and today the Quebec independence movement is in clear retreat
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Today the independence movement Quebec is in clear retreat
P. The PNV has targeted the Scottish model as a benchmark to follow and not to Catalonia.
R. The Scottish case has the backing of a covenant in his own country and the PNV knows that a unilateral claim, like Catalonia, were legality, are not going to accept. I have seen in Scotland driver of experts expressly distance themselves from the Catalan independence by unilateral action if not agreed.
P. Scotland could be the precedent in the EU of a chain of secessions?
R. In any case, a hypothetical Scottish independence would be a precedent in the EU. Scottish independence themselves present it as a special case, agreed, and emphasize its uniqueness to be accepted. Discarded be the beginning of a line of independence in the EU.
P. Why Catalonia or Euskadi can not be a referendum agreed
R. Quebec and Scotland are two exceptional cases where very solid elements were presented. In Spain, for starters, there is a constitutional problem. The constitution and bylaws do not provide for this. But also, in political terms, there is a radical difference between the proposal of the Scottish Nationalist Party and the proposed consultation Ibarretxe, in its day, and today Artur Mas. Neither Mas nor Ibarretxe is contesting the elections with a clear program, to submit a proposal for consultation independence. They did so half-hearted. The clear statement of the Scottish Nationalist Party was preceded by a broad political debate that has not occurred here. But you will have to complete to be done because it is politically untenable situation we live in Catalonia
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The attitude of Artur Mas is causing a serious social fracture
P. The PP government is reluctant to open that debate.
R. is true, but will be politically unsustainable over time for their negative effects. Nothing can be done outside the law, but who defends must justify its legitimacy. It is true that the Constitution is reluctant to referendum, but you can explore a majority consensus on what conditions and with what requirements could be held.
P. What will happen in Catalonia?
R. An important part of the Catalans are mobilized for independence. There is a closure to the debate on the one hand and on the other, a claim for forward flight. The attitude of Artur Mas is causing an implosion of the Catalan party system and a very serious social fracture. The Catalan situation is therefore extremely worrying and hardly manageable.
P. ERC is committed to unilaterally hold the referendum for independence.
R. And it will unilaterally declare independence? Will you opt for the insurrection ?, We’re not in the thirties.
P. How can affect the scandal of the Pujol family to Catalan sovereignty process
R. Who is going to affect CiU. This match has very bad future. The government of Mas has led CiU suicide and scandal Pujol is the auction.
P. Where are you going Catalonia
R. In the short term, it will cause great frustration. I am convinced that if Scotland and Catalonia have had a co0mo funding that has allowed the economic agreement, they had raised no subsequent problems. Today I see only output a huge bath realism.
P. What can the central government and institutions?
R. The Central Government has not given a serious response to the strategy of nationalism. Only an appeal to the law and can not become an impassable trench. The first error is still not afford the political debate. And it must be done without accepting the pitch of nationalism. The problems at the time and were detected in the functioning of the autonomous State must be addressed then. Because the problems are there now.
P. What do you mean?
R. For example, the division of powers. In all the states, the Constitution clearly sets out the powers of the state while here were the autonomy statutes that have set the opening conflict situations as happened with the reform of the Statute of Catalonia. Slope is also funding resolution and intergovernmental relations.
P. Scottish or Catalan phenomenon can affect Euskadi
R. The PNV is marked by the experience of Ibarretxe plan and a commitment sovereignism, unilateral, risking the loss of power and strengthening the left nationalist . What surprises me is that Artur Mas has not learned from experience Ibarretxe.
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