National Day at the worst time – La Rioja

National Day at the worst time – La Rioja

Catalonia has entered what in the terminology of Artur Mas is defined as the unknown territory. A quarter of vertigo with three dates on the calendar in red, 11 and 19 September and 9 November, and will shape the future, either as a final push to break or the end of the sovereignist project Mas.

Almost the only ones who dare to make predictions about what will happen are the separatists, who do not hesitate to proclaim from the rooftops that the National Day next Thursday will be the last of Catalonia within Spain. It will be the “definitive” as the Catalan National Assembly, who believes that within a year no longer have anything to vindicate that will start the construction of the new state. Sovereignism a hurry and feel that is before her big break. To this point I believe the ANC and Cultural Òmnium, organizers of the ‘V’ human 11-S, have put all eggs in one basket to the concentration in the streets of Barcelona is a success and the launch ramp query. “Let’s take the most important step in our history: vote and win the November 9th” point beyond a doubt from the Assembly. But your goal is so ambitious, celebrate “the most massive of history in Europe,” if you can not get back against concentration. A former deputy leader of ERC and Congress has no doubts: “It will be a complete success. If last year was attended by 1.6 million in the Catalan Way (600,000, according to the Government Office and 800,000 according to the count made Catalan Society Civil human chain), this year may exceed two million. ”

The bar 2012 and 2013 is hard to beat, match PSC sources and Catalan PP. Socialists do not dare to predict a “prick” but believe there will be “less” participation. “It would be reasonable that fewer people go ‘also point in the PP. If so, the popular believe that would be the first sign that the “balloon” is starting to “deflate” and fatigue of materials is inevitable. Signs of burnout and distrust about politicians who do not see to be able to consummate the challenge are evident especially after the opening salvo Jordi Pujol, the indigestible guest of the National Day. With his confession has upended his party, he smote the alliance between CiU and ERC and maybe also the sovereignty process. It will be the memory of the defeat of 1714 more ambitious, but also the most risky because it comes at the most sensitive time for independence.

ERC sees ‘case Pujol’ a stimulus for those who require a regeneration More is under pressure to disobey the Constitution if it suspends the query PP and PSC Aboca assume that the situation hopeless to early elections

From the ANC, in any case, deny that the ‘case Pujol’ will affect the mobilization of 11-S. “Pujol was the symbol of Catalonia and has had a terrible impact. But once the coup happened, reactivate appropriate people because the independence project is regeneration and the creation of a new country where you do not change ‘pujoles’ “point sources sovereigntist platform.

Mobilization

The main asset of secessionism is its ability to mobilize a critical mass of 500,000 to a million Catalans do not stop until they can think vote. They consider the ‘case Pujol’ is the final stage of the autonomist nationalism and the decline of the former is an incentive to start a new phase, the breakaway nationalism. The former deputy said ERC also believes that the scandal Pujol is causing the opposite effect that some presume. Far from slowing it down, has catalyzed the mobilization.

The Most

Although she has had a side effect, erosion of relations between CiU and ERC, which seemed armored, but suffer a rapid deterioration in the brutal confession of the former.

For the Government, while the message is, as expressed by the Minister Francesc Homs, that despite the ‘case Pujol’, the ‘process will run its course because it is people, very deep and long roots. ” For the Catalan Government, the ‘mobilization’ in the street and the “unity” of the sovereignist forces are two key drivers. The first seems assured, the second is another story.

The mobilization will be tested with the National Day. The unit, a week later, on 19 September, when the Catalan Parliament approved the law of consultation and then, according to the agreed route sheet, Mas sign the decree calling a referendum. Up to this limit the president’s commitment to the Government is firm. From there comes the confusion. The Central Government has already announced that it will appeal the law and decree, the Constitutional admit admissible, it shall suspend the inquiry and the call will be in the air.

Check or choices

At this point, only Mas has said that the decision made will be agreed between CiU, ERC, and CUP Initiative, driving matches the query. The three left formations and the Assembly lobby the Catalan president, asked to disobey the court and take the polls to the streets because the law, they argue, can not stop the process. He united and moderates Convergence flagged by the vice president, Joana Ortega, and the Minister Santi Vila, asking to respect the law, while the independence of Convergence, as the number two party, Josep Rull, are by consultation, legal or illegal.

But it has remained in an intermediate position while stating that his “determination is total”, says the consultation must be done “well” without making “ridiculous”, which is both like saying you do not want a referendum in which only vote the sovereignist, which would not be recognized by any international body, lack of democratic guarantees because there would municipalities governed by the PSC and PP they would refuse to participate in anything illegal, and officials or citizens who object to participating in the tables.

The situation But before the Dyad is, as they say in Catalonia, for ‘strake i mocador’ (handkerchief), and facing the final stage with CiU divided, weakened electorally punished by ‘case Pujol’, with serious differences with ERC, trying to close an espresso refounding Convergence with Duran Lleida concocting an alternative to independence, the sovereignist asking to ignore the law and the ‘establishment’ Catalan protesting to dialogue and that will not break with Spain . You have to square a circle, according to the PSC and PP, can only end in electoral breakthrough.

Today, who has every chance of winning is Junqueras which could lead a coalition Convergence and ERC’s sovereignty to boost the unilateral declaration of independence. “In the 34 and we did,” says the former deputy Republican. The RFP does not rule out that scenario and speculate that the process “will end in frustration and tension in society.”