It often happens that maps a given region ng covered the same political color, with successive waves of conservative or socialist governments in Europe and, more recently and South America, with a marked tendency towards choosing of progressive administrations of different tone. It is not, of course, that the direction of the vote is contagious or that countries choose governments by osmosis. The fact rather responds to such national policy responses in similar contexts generate the major trends in the international economy and the dissemination of systems ideas (in a given historical moment) account in a manner most effective of what happens in the world .
Syriza, the radical left, won yesterday in Greece and is ready to form a government. On the horizon the next UK election (in May) and Spain are observed, shortly before year-end. France’s turn will come in 2017. Should expected, after what happened yesterday, a rise of the radical left in these differing contexts?
Probably not, but what can glimpse is a growing trend or even win the games that best embody which seems to bring the macro trend of international economy: the challenge of increasingly unequal economic systems, logic setting and uncompromising stability in the return of social prosperity is no longer even part of utopias . However, the ideological approach to this challenge can be very dissimilar and will be given by the political and cultural traditions of each country, as well as deciding factors, but sometimes underestimated as personal imprint of leaders that embody it. The phenomenon of SYRIZA in Greece can be “replicated” in both the right-wing UK Independence Party (UKIP) and left citizen can in Spain and even the National Front in France.
Leaving aside the case of the UK (slightly since the lurch country), where you have to see to what extent the rejection of Europe can elevate a party that promotes a complete break with the EU, “contagion effect” that fears the Brussels bureaucracy refers mainly to Spain , one of the largest economies among the sick of the eurozone.
The Secretary General can, Pablo Iglesias , said yesterday in Valencia, after his recent visit to Athens (where he embraced his pair of SYRIZA, Alexis Tsipras ), “and hear the tick “ of a historic shift that began in Greece and also come to Spain. “They say that Greece will reach the chaos, but chaos is already in Greece and do not want to become my country in Greece,” the head of the party he heads, though less than 30%, premature intention polls to vote.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy , whose People’s Party figure by now in a humiliating third place, attacked the “messianic approach” of can and do attributed “Caribbean spells” of the Chavez Venezuela. “We can not risk our future Russian roulette of frivolity, incompetence or populism” he said, without promising anything better to change.
It appears that Tsipras rule from the next days, so when Spain vote will already know if yours looks more promising paradise or hell Iglesias on the warning Rajoy.
Your experiment will readily distinguished, as it must be passed through the narrow gorge of a State bankrupt financially and politically plans social assistance increased 40% poor that left the German austerity, a clear adjustment measures relief and a new cut of a debt that despite the suffering endured, still represents 175% of Product .
Angela Merkel , which leaked to the press that no longer fears a Greek exit from the euro, and community leadership played in the campaign to intimidate voters and, despite the setback suffered yesterday not tested another script hereinafter. The Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann , jagged yesterday even before the result was known and demanded. “Greece, respect the commitments and make reforms in their own interest”
Meanwhile, finance ministers of the eurozone will gather today in Brussels to set a seamless line twisting and give a message of calm markets show signs of restlessness .
Given this powerful front, Tsipras can count for a nascent economic recovery … if tirria politics and not put on the block over the line.
To avoid this, let stepping the accelerator while and no longer evokes as much as two years ago, the “Argentina Experience” it is possible to grow without paying the debt. Neither speaks of leaving the euro. Not that it has been in love with the corset of the common currency but knows that just mention the word “drachma” unleash a bank run would end up destroying the country and could soon end its Government . So Merkel pressed.
All this played today Greece, Spain and Europe itself. Will you Tsipras go in depth with their rebellion? Can he do it? What cards can display pressure, when the great German and French banks, benefit from the years of time it bought the “aid schemes” have drastically limited their exposure to Greece? What scope of relief adjustment will enable the leadership of Germany, while watching a Spain that soon can claim more? Will you accept Brussels that Greece luxury of a successful sovereign experience give
A tighten their belts?; this has just begun.
No comments:
Post a Comment