Corruption. The revelation of a plot by the Secretary of the Interior against Catalan independence has marked the days leading up to new elections called to decide between continuity of a party mired in lawsuits or change, peaking with force the leftist coalition Unidos Podemos
Almost all polls published since we announced it would attend the elections with Izquierda Unida predict that the coalition led by Pablo Iglesias is now the second most voted, and, thus, it exceeds the Socialist Party, which came second in December.
In what appear to be no doubt is that the Popular Party (PP) repeat victory, although polls are split between those who suggest that exceed the 123 seats in six months and indicating that still you lose more seats in December after losing its absolute majority noisily.
ERRORS. However, in a scenario that looked for judgment, two vital questions arise. The first is that the polls were wrong sharply in the previous elections, putting the liberal center-right Citizens as a third force and leftist Podemos as the fourth power. And it was the other way around.
The most pessimistic poll gave training leading Albert Rivera 52 seats (reason), when finally obtained only 40. The most optimistic gave the 64 deputies Pablo Iglesias (El País), when finally they managed 69. If the polls again underestimate the potential of home training, US voters can have reason to think they can beat the (PSOE) Socialist Party and even watch more than the victory of the popular.
CONSPIRACY. And there is another factor that could help the improbable happen. And no poll has been able to measure the impact on voter intentions may have yet another political scandal that has embroiled the government.
This past week the newspaper Publico showed the bombshell: Some recordings leaked reproduced a long conversation between Interior Secretary Jorge Fernandez Diaz, and the head of the Anti-Fraud Office of Catalonia, Daniel De Alfonso, plotting to tarnish the image of the leaders of the Catalan independence parties. Accusations of alleged laundered money or accounts abroad then related media such as El Mundo published, and that proved false.
As if that were not enough, the recording was done in the office of the secretary, so there are serious concerns about the ability of the Spanish government to protect the privacy of their communications. In addition, in conversation, four hours and held in October 2014, De Alfonso comes to boast of having “destroyed the health system” of Catalonia. This has led to the utmost indignation in the region, which has already taken steps to dismiss the director of its anti-fraud team.
However, the impact this will have on the elections in Catalonia will be almost nil, since the PP is already a residual force in the territory. The question is whether the umpteenth scandal even more popular may damage their image to their electorate in the rest of the state. An electorate whose majority seems almost immune to the reality that cast evidence of widespread corruption.
GOVERNMENT. With all this, the stage of negotiations to form a government can be as complex as forcing repeat elections. Pedro Sanchez, candidate of the PSOE, has not digested yet Iglesias refuses to join their pact with Citizens, and accused him of rowing against change.
However, this time Sanchez announced that if they exceed the purple seats should forget enlist their support for the president declared investir former communist Churches. On the other hand, it seems that Mariano Rajoy complicated collect enough support to repeat in the palace of La Moncloa, although there is a suspicion that the less progressive sectors of the Socialists would be willing to give their support.
And amidst all this mess, there is already a third one speaking of elections. Come and see.
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