Apicarán survey failed to explain why surveys – SDPnoticias.com

God does not play dice with the universe. The devil does with surveys

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“No one knows why the result was not the one who gave the polls. And neither do we. “

That said one of the leaders of Podemos, Pablo Echenique, after the failure of his party in the recent Spanish elections.

I read in The World.

in that diary I also read that we “has commissioned a survey to find out why has plummeted in that way”, ie, to explain why the election results did not match the polls that predicted a much better performance of that left party.

That is, will the leaders of Podemos, many respected scholars, a survey to understand why it failed the polls.

That is absurd ? No way. It is, rather, the only sensible thing they can do.

Of course, not only apply to a survey, but made many other analyzes based on political science. But the survey will be critical in the diagnosis.

So, surveys, often fail, should be used to understand why it failed the polls. No other

This is something like what Popper called the fundamental problem of the theory of chance.

“The most important application of the theory of probability in what we can call events- events, or ‘random’ or ‘random’. These are characterized apparently by a peculiar kind of incalculability that predisposes one to believe infructuosas- -after many attempts that all rational prediction methods are known to fail when those present: we have something like suspicion that is not a scientist who could predict them, but only a prophet. And yet, just this incalculability is what makes us conclude that it is possible to apply to such events calculating probabilities “.

As the result of an election no one can know with accuracy in advance, then They have developed probabilistic methods, surveys, to try to have a more or less accurate picture of what will happen idea.

But as an electoral process is quite complex and hazardous, surveys may fail. And fail.

They failed to Mexico this year. They failed in the UK. They failed in Spain. Fail everywhere.

Front random’re helpless. What Poincare said. Chance is merely the measure of human ignorance

As in chaos theory, in elections anything that changes, however small change, you can return impossible prediction.

pollsters and politicians who hire them corresponds analyze why their surveys fail. But to make the best analysis, as absurd as it seems, have to apply many more surveys.

The survey is a tool that should not be dismissed just because it is sometimes imprecise, especially if there is no other more effective to replace it.

Does God Play dice with the universe? It is assumed that Einstein said no. But presumably also that Bohr corrected him. Stop telling God what to do

Apparently, in the elections, if not the pollsters, it is the devil who plays dice with forecasts.