In a clearly Europeanist Spain, if the so-called “brexit” has any impact on the elections this Sunday will be to increase participation and to encourage the most committed parties with the European Union.
This is “roughly” the view shared by most experts consulted by EFE after the British decided on Thursday to leave the EU and two days ahead of the legislative in Spain.
Analysts leave in the air, as something subject to speculation, if the force most benefit is the Popular Party (center right), since it is in the government and represents the “status quo “or if it harms can (and anti-austerity left), perceived as more” anti “.
The indisputable fact is that, despite the economic crisis and according to recent polls, around 70 percent of Spaniards believe that was – and is – very satisfactory Spain’s membership of the European Union.
Ignacio Molina, Europe researcher for the Elcano Royal Institute, says that “the relevance of this news, as has happened before, can increase participation in the elections.”
also believes that “if involved the so-called ‘vote of fear,’ that somehow favor the Popular Party” because it can be the reaction of those who avoid uncertainties.
Molina, Professor of Political Science at the Autonomous University of Madrid, does not rule out that the “brexit” will serve We can if the voter chooses to reject “provisions”, as they have done British with the Government, the Labour opposition, the business world or the highly influential international financial center known as the “City”.
On the other hand, Diego Lopez Garrido, former Secretary of State for European Affairs in the Socialist government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero believes that precisely this attitude “anti-system” that have grown can and its ally election, Izquierda Unida is reason to believe that may harm them.
“Elections – holds – will reinforce the Europeanism of the Spanish people and those parties that best represent (…) and we can harm and Izquierda Unida (the coalition leftist) because they wanted to leave the EU, the euro, NATO, because they have wanted to leave everything. ”
Enrique Baron, president of the International European Movement and former President of the European Parliament, is sure that the voter “tend to support the pro-European forces, ie, the PSOE, the PP and Citizens also “not to” go for adventure whose result is absolutely unpredictable “, in clear reference to can.
The Spanish caretaker government, Mariano Rajoy, today called for calm and serenity after a story that has received “with sadness”.
His Foreign Minister, Jose Manuel Garcia Margallo, said that the British departure “get you closer to building the United States of Europe”.
The teacher of the academic institution ESADE José María de Areilza, also general secretary of “Aspen Institute”, sums up his opinion:
“the first thing to consider is that surveys have failed in the UK, so we have to face cautiously what Sunday happens in Spain”
“And the second , voters a clearly pro-European country will be inclined to support parties that are moderate sensitivity and defend Europeanism. ”
Narciso Michavila, president of the Cabinet of Demoscópico Analysis GAD3, is also very concise: “In my view, the impact (the” brexit “) will be minimal, can increase participation election and, in principle, it should favor the pro-European parties “.
For Fermin Bouza, Professor of Sociology at the Complutense University of Madrid and an expert on public opinion, “it will not be this Sunday important consequences because, really, I do not think it’s a issue politically classified “.
But on the British decision interprets: “What is clear is that the government that comes to you will further complicate things.”
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