SPAIN: JP Morgan does not provide an independent Catalonia, but with more autonomy / Expansion / The US bank has predicted that Catalonia, “even in the most dramatic “stage, remain part of Spain, but with a new framework that will grant greater political and fiscal autonomy.
In a paper on the 27S Catalan elections, he stressed that “reconciliation process” will take time and that relations between the Catalan and central government remain tense time before the process to take a more constructive tone.
27S: “Quasi referendum” has said that the constitution of Junts paper itself, which includes CDC and ERC, the election has become “a kind of quasi-referendum” as well as the fact that the Most seats have announced that seek independence.
JP Morgan has stressed that the issue is whether “the claims of Catalan independence parties will actually be followed by actions of rupture”.
The financial factors to see that the situation “is gradually normalize” even if that role if it did Junts the –aspecto looks exactly an easy absolute majority in an election in seeing crucial participation.
Among the factors cited that “secession is illegal” and no state party would support a declaration of independence and approximate these parties; an exclusion from the EU; supporting a ‘third way’ of Catalan waiting to manifest, and the reform of the Constitution of the state parties to speak.
JP Morgan does not think Junts pel itself reaches 68 deputies to give an absolute majority, but that could be reached by the CUP even a coalition that is not “strongly supported by the polls” and that just go for a unilateral declaration of independence.
Financial expected a good performance from C’s and we –dentro de Catalunya really is pot– “should erode Junts paper itself and CUP” and considered that the fact that polls CDC show no loss of support after his break with Union may be an overestimation of convergence.
tense relationship has argued that the relationship between the Government and the central government remain tense, and his prediction that there will be no absolute majority “should be enough to derail the process.” He assured that a minority Government in Junts pel itself keep the conflict but “would not have the ability to move forward” with the process.
JP Morgan forecasts a temporary relapse after 27S, but “its evolution depends governing coalition” in the state after the general.
said that any coalition will be more open to dialogue than “rigid” position of PP in recent years, and the Catalan authorities intensify avoid confrontation so as not to give the popular revenues. It considered that the coalition government that may arise after the general elections can be an opportunity to “soften the tone and start a constructive dialogue.”
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