Soccer / / SPAIN: But the bar is set very low / World / The nationalist account of the Catalan politics in recent years holds that the “sovereignty process” begins almost three years ago, on 20 September 2012. On that day, Artur Mas met in La Moncloa with Mariano Rajoy and posed for Catalonia a new “fiscal compact” a funding system in line with the Basque concert. The Prime Minister said no, and Mas announced five days after summoning elections. But instead of the “most outstanding” he had asked, he lost 12 deputies. And there began the career of president with the aim of joining forces in the sovereigntist area which has resulted in the announcement of 27-S.
More and its partners no longer ask a question, but say they will launch directly into a -quite diffusers independence plan if they win the elections. Convergence, which broke in June with its historic Federation Union, now comes the hand of separatists ERC and various private entities to try to forget the corruption that has plagued in recent years and to alleviate the decline that predicted it all the polls. The president of the Generalitat has convinced his colleagues on the list of Junts pel Yes that is enough the absolute majority in the Parliament to trigger a process leading to the independence of Catalonia in a period of 18 months, but clearly, and privately supported the nationalist area, the 27-S will measure the forces that have, and will condition the next few months. The elections, more and Oriol Junqueras claim plebiscite but no other party share that view, can bury the proces or to begin a period of great turbulence in the Spanish policy.
TWO THIRDS OF INDEPENDENCE More was presented to the 2012 elections with two stated goals: CiU achieved an absolute majority in the polls and that, together with the parties that supported his plan to convene a sovereigntist consultation (ERC, ICV and CUP), managed to add 90 deputies. The figure is not a fad: they are two thirds of the Parliament, the majority needed to, for example, promote or encourage the statute reform an electoral law. So it did not happen either of those things, but the wet dream of independence is still in the barrier of two thirds.
If the September 27 explicitly lists secessionist (Junts pel Yes and CUP) reach 90 deputies is clear that more will launch its plan. That figure also surely give them more than 50% of the vote, the unstated aim pursued international bodies for the Catalan case be taken seriously. However, it is a scenario that does not include any survey so far. And cured in health, Mas has been this time much less ambitious. Shortly after calling the elections said he was satisfied with an absolute majority of pro-independence deputies
ABSOLUTE MAJORITY OF JUNTS PEL If the list Mas although it is headed by Raul Romeva there is a commitment that the current president of the Generalitat, which runs from number four, repeat the charge- also have a wide discretion if he manages alone the absolute majority of deputies in the Parliament . Although the current sum of CiU and ERC has already reached that figure-indeed, both formations are 71 deputies, three listón- above, the dissolution of the federation and the fact that polls predict the outcome of Junts pel Yes can stay below 68 seats causes the absolute majority is the main objective of the joint list.
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However, it is quite possible that if the list is right on the edge of the 68 deputies or little above, not get more than 50% of the vote. This is because the premium the vote electoral law in rural areas, which benefits the nationalists: why have never wanted to change the rule to make it more proportional. In the event that pel Yes Junts not get the majority votes nor alone or accompanied by Cup-, independence would have a problem of legitimacy: claim that the 27-S is a plebiscite, and calls for those features ballots not counted seats. In fact, the CUP has already said that the barrier to carry out the plans should be in the 55% of the vote.
PEL JUNTS ABSOLUTE MAJORITY OF YES AND CUP The current sum of CiU, ERC and CUP in Parliament is 74 MPs, six above the absolute majority. So Mas, who has said he simply between all parties except those junctions take out 68 seats, has been this time the low bar to remain in power. But the president could have problems with the CUP, that no longer wanted to join the unified list and in recent days has reminded its equidistance. “I see the CUP Mas investing or making the game the Spanish state,” said David Fernandez, leader of the party in the legislature and deputy ending revelation in the last two years.
But there is yet another scenario that causes panic in Convergence: the CUP, based on a great result of 10-more escaños- and independence still needed for an absolute majority, requiring furthest removed in favor of Romeva to give its support role Junts Yes and sovereignty plan.
MOST WITHOUT INDEPENDENCE The only scenario that would end definitely with the independence process would if Junts role between Yes and the CUP not add the 68 deputies of the majority. Although it would be difficult to articulate an alternative Government by the great ideological differences of non-independence parties, the election as a plebiscite was not raised and therefore present with own proposals, the composition of the lists would become a nightmare for CDC and ERC. Both parties would be left with far fewer deputies who currently have, because, trying to create a kind of dream team of secession, they have filled the role Junts candidacy Yes of people outside politics: showbiz representatives as Lluís Llach, Isona Passola or Josep Maria Mainat, writers like Xavier Rubert de Ventos and Jaume Cabre, journalists Miquel Calçada, scientists like Pere-Joan Cardona, and even players like Pep Guardiola, symbolically closing of Barcelona.
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