Andalusia is the starting point of a year that can radically change the political course of Spain and reinforce the change started in Europe with the victory of SYRIZA in Greece, she left the Greek force Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, in recent January elections defeated the traditional groupings of left and right of the country.
On May 24 municipal elections were held and in most of the autonomous regions, in September there will be elections in Catalonia plebiscitary character and year-end will take place general, who will decide who the next prime minister of Spain.
Only then Spanish citizens have in their hands the possibility to support the current hegemonic power or buried more than three decades of bipartisanship and open a It was an alternative to the neoliberal policies of the last years of crisis, maintaining the country with an unemployment rate of over 23%.
However, the elections of Andalusia, one of the poorest communities Spain will function as a laboratory, although their results can not be extrapolated to the national level.
For the PSOE, these Andalusian elections will be crucial because it will be measured for the first time at the polls with We, the party leader Pablo Iglesias and leads the national survey with the general view, and make precisely in the region whose vote has been historically essential for socialists to reach La Moncloa.
The southern Andalucia with 8.4 million inhabitants, is currently one of the few electoral strongholds held by the PSOE in the country, while the PP President Mariano Rajoy governs almost all regions since 2011.
Current regional president, Susana Diaz, announced the election of a strategy that seems designed to mitigate the effect of the polls and can serve as a springboard to become a candidate for La Moncloa.
Diaz reached its position in September 2013 without going to the polls, following the resignation of Jose Antonio Grin, who was right and who at the time he was punctuated by a corruption scandal for which he was recently accused.
Without But in late January decided to unilaterally break the coalition government with the United Left (IU) which he had inherited, arguing that its members had been radicalized to converge with can.
The explanations were unconvincing to IU, who accused Diaz of acting for electoral purposes.
Since I can burst into the European elections in May 2014 with five MEPs, the strength of Churches continued to grow in the polls, displacing the PSOE to third place. The fight was most recently joined Citizens, the center-right party led by Albert Catalan Rivera, who decided to take a leap and presented throughout Spain.
The rise of both forces appears to be revolutionizing the political map to the detriment of traditional forces as PP and PSOE, but IU, falling to fifth.
However, neither we nor Citizen had time to develop a solid structure throughout the country, hence Diaz tries to give a bombshell in Andalusia that if goes well, could have national reach.
According to the latest “barometer” of the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) released today, Diaz would the most voted candidate in Andalusia, with 34.7% of the vote, but would get 44 seats and 11 would be an absolute majority, which would be obliged to agree with another party to govern.
The PP, which leads to Juan Manuel Moreno as a candidate and was first force in the previous elections, would get 25.7% of the vote, and spend 50 to 34 seats. Meanwhile, we, with Teresa Rodríguez as a candidate, would be third force with 19.2% of the vote and between 21 and 22 deputies.
The big aggrieved is IU, which would fall to 6.6 % of the vote and would go from 12-4 to 5 seats. Meanwhile, Citizens get almost the same percentage, 6.4% and 5 deputies.
A victory would give the PSOE in Andalusia to fight the urge greater possibilities in municipal and suck though it now seems distant – the dispute over the presidency of the Spanish government
Some analysts say Diaz aspiration is to compete with the leader of the PSOE, Pedro Sanchez, to be a candidate.
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The PP will have the possibility to measure wear, although this region remains elusive for decades, so the thermometer may not be the most appropriate.
In the case of can, its leaders were forced to hasten the time to set program and choose candidate in Andalusia. . This led them to recognize that they had high expectations, but then rectified and said that is where begin to glimpse the change that needs to Spain
Iglesias said that in general only have two choices: We can or PP . But the PSOE Andalucía confident that the re-locate in the fight.
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