We can believe the survey shows “an almost irreversible change” – HOME

We can believe the survey shows "an almost irreversible change" – HOME

Pablo Iglesias and the staff of can at the close of the Citizens’ Assembly. / ULY MARTIN

We can no longer It is the first force in estimation of vote, the poll of Metroscopia for COUNTRY published yesterday, but has been consolidated on the political map with 25% of the vote, behind the PSOE, who heads the electoral projection 27.7 %. The formation of Pablo Iglesias received with caution survey results, although as a clear sign of its consolidation, a circumstance as Inigo Errejón, responsible for Policy Secretariat still “not enough” to achieve a social majority, but it shows that “The possibility of change is here to stay”. “Change and seems almost irreversible,” says Carolina Bescansa, head of the Department of Political and Social Analysis.

Although the study was conducted days after the submission of the draft economic program, criticized for its uncertainty, and when the case of the research contract was already known to the University of Málaga of number two of the training, Errejón own highlights what he considers the good news: “It has broken the monopoly of policy by the traditional parties. “

In any case, its leaders, all political scientists and social scientists, show caution because they know the state of opinion polls which they bring can vary in just a few days. The ultimate goal of Churches and theirs, the general elections of 2015, there are still too far. “Lack long time [for elections], and secondly we are seeing an acceleration” of events. “At the same amount of time they can spend a lot of things,” he reasons Bescansa.

However, the main electoral analyst can, Professor of Methodology at the Complutense University of Madrid, concedes that there is a scenario increasingly sharper in which “the trends are consolidated and has become clear breakdown of the party system” that took hold after the Socialist victory of 1982.

“The system can evolve and can mean the opening of a new process of redefining the rules. Things will never again be as before, “proclaims Bescansa. And in this process can work direction to build your project majority and be between PSOE and IU.

In addition, board members just do not understand the free fall of the PP to 20% since that despite the corruption scandals affecting the majority party usually has a very loyal voters bag while watching “sunk” to PSOE Pedro Sánchez. The Socialists, meanwhile, intend to occupy the political space between the party of Mariano Rajoy and the Churches, which have already started can draw as its direct competitor for hegemony vote on the left. In this context, the number two, César Luena, emphasizes the “recovery” experienced by the PSOE in the polls since the election of Pedro Sánchez.

The address of PP yesterday opted to remain silent. In any case, their leaders take weeks attributing the poor results of surveys on corruption, and trust regain the initiative with a view to the electoral calendar.