Opinion polls show a sharp increase of disenchantment, which could be key if the elections were repeated
MADRID.- are days of disappointment for the Spaniards. The intense political mobilization to what was announced in 2015 as a change of historical cycle is diluted in a profound and measurable social frustration from the block that prevents form a stable government for three and a half months ago.
disillusionment reached historical records in all polls published in early April and can be a decisive factor if, as forecasts suggest, is inevitable repeat general election in late June.
the last survey state Center for Sociological Research (CIS) revealed that almost 80% of Spaniards considered bad (37.6%) or very bad (42.3%) the political situation in the country and over 50% believe that everything will remain the same or worse a year from now. The Metroscopia consultant estimated at 94% the number of people expressing their dissatisfaction with politicians for the inability to find a way out deviled results of the elections on December 20, when for the first time the power was distributed among four games without none approached alone the parliamentary majority.
the time to agree on a government expires on May 2 and all negotiating tracks are cut. Conservative Mariano Rajoy (PP) is in charge of the presidency with bounded functions and Congress is practically inactive.
“the disappointment that can lead to a repeat election could bring a smaller share,” says Francisco Camas, analyst Metroscopia. According to his numbers, I’d go to vote 69% of the electorate, six points less than in December.
The political scientist Paul Simon, professor at the Carlos III University, agrees that expect an increase in abstention if new elections. “But what worries me most is that disenchantment would also increase before that he says failure. It is possible that this increased interest in politics we were seeing in Spain in recent years becomes cynicism. And that’s always bad for a political system. “
analysts see strong option for a multiparty system. There is no nostalgia for the conservative-socialist model that dominated the last 40 years. However, it also highlighted conflicting signs to this present unknown.
A survey Netquest for the digital newspaper El Spanish, indicates that less than 20% of respondents want the elections to be repeated, but all possible agreements to break the deadlock have a majority against.
the option is better off is the amount of -Insufficient deputies agreed between the socialist and liberal Pedro Sanchez Albert Rivera, Citizen. 22.4% supports and rejects 59%.
The social frustration is especially primed with new parties, which came to revolutionize politics. “The Spaniards have voted thinking that the political situation can be moved, they were able to change the system because they were tired -Indicates Simon. It is logical disenchantment if in the end it fails and it turns out it did not matter who was there . “
Almost all known polls show that the PP could be the most benefited before new elections, although Rajoy refused to accept the order of the king to form a government and was unable to articulate agreements to renew its mandate.
in a scenario of greater abstention Metroscopia conservatives gives them the possibility to increase their number of seats without growing percentage of votes (27.7%). The PSOE would remain in the order of 22% removed in December while citizens grow (from 14% to 18.8%) and strong can fall (from 20.7% to 15.9%).
such a result would guarantee blockade and confusion without time limits, unless the parties assume greater sacrifices which they offered so far.
they are abstract speculations. If the new called electoral materialize, the board could move with a simple change of strategy. Would we reject an alliance with United Left, which drew more than a million votes in December? Would not it be possible that the PSOE and Citizen is entered into coalition with the pact signed in March? ¿Rajoy will insist publicly very poor image -of being the PP candidate?
These questions now occupy the political, rather than the remote possibility that an agreement in the three weeks remaining before is reached the king declared bankrupt Congress elected in December.
Pedro Sanchez
Leader Psoe
His efforts to negotiate a government with other political parties so far were useless, and it would not benefit to a repeat of the elections. According to polls, the PP is the force with more chances to increase voter support at the possibility
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