the Friday, March 4 at night, Spain resigned himself to the inevitable. Pedro Sanchez, leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), presented for the second time in 48 hours the government proposal, supported by a coalition with Albert Rivera, the center-right Citizens (C’s). The result was the same as on Wednesday. 131 votes in favor and 219 against
It was enough that part of the bed of the ruling Popular Party (PP), or populist to refrain we left, that Sanchez was sworn in. But both poles of the ideological spectrum agreed in their resounding rejection of the agreement.
Now the Spanish political class has exactly two months until May 3 to present a new proposal with possibilities form a government. If all the intransigence insist that held so far, that day will call general elections. Its outcome is uncertain. The only certainty seems to be that the political crisis will deepen
the strategy Sanchez and the PSOE
“Sanchez launched into a covenant with C’s, knowing he would not leave invested, the cost of agreeing with Podemos, who demanded very high consideration. So it was a way to show willingness to compromise with other parties, “said Gema Sánchez Medero, a professor of political science at the Complutense University of Madrid, consulted by Infobae .
Indeed, the mathematical indicated that it was almost impossible to form a government with C’s, because between the two totaled only 130 deputies, far from the 176 needed. An alliance with we would have allowed the PSOE reach 159, much closer. But the party of Pablo Iglesias important ministries demanded in return. In addition, its favorable to the regions made referenda to decide to continue or secession from Spain, radical proposals, and scare the socialist hierarchy.
“Sanchez launched into a covenant with C’s, knowing he would not leave invested, the cost can agree with”
also keep in mind the domestic front that has Sanchez in the PSOE, where it is resisted by regional leaders. “It’s an important point. When elections leadership was much discussed were made. There are new features and other leaders compete with him. So he wanted to keep the General Secretariat of the party, and for that hurried to present his inauguration,” said Infobae political scientist Mélany Barragan, a professor at the University of Salamanca.
“by taking this task has improved its assessment as leader in public opinion and their chances of survival within the party. Sanchez has partially succeeded in turning a bad election result in a political gain. not having tried to form a government and negotiate with different parties would have left him in a state of weakness to his party and to the electorate, “said Leticia Ruiz Rodríguez, a professor of political science at the Complutense University of Madrid, in dialogue with Infobae .
Mariano Rajoy against all
“it’s a very worn leader said Barragán-, which cost him a lot to get to the presidency. He ruled in a period of crisis, adopted unpopular measures and was always slightly open to dialogue, because he had absolute majorities in the chambers. Now remained in the same position, appealing to their only basis of legitimacy have been the most voted list. So he got all the other forces agree to PP away. It has been a strategic error “.
Seeing that he would not be able to reach an agreement with any other party under the conditions he wanted, the President went into a defensive posture. When king Philip VI offered to be the first to form government-what was his by being the candidate most votado- declined the offer and gave way to Sanchez, but without getting off the fight.
“Rajoy got all the other forces agree divert the PP”
“Rajoy made the accounts and saw that with the votes of C’s could not get invested. As the PSOE was closed and told him not to a grand coalition, believed to force him to sit down and negotiate had to failing to. So ameliorates his own failure, which would have been clearer if he appeared before Congress. The strategy now is retrying an agreement with both forces, but I do not come to fruition, “said Sánchez Medero.
For Maria Montserrat Herrero, professor of moral philosophy and politics University of Navarra, Rajoy had little choice, and could hardly have tried something else. “it’s their usual strategy of letting things happen and try to make a good final play said to Infobae – as in chess. I think smart in a case of complete isolation, because the progressive parties have made him a scapegoat. The alliance policy of progressivism is based on a single argument: take to Rajoy. Not that they have anything in common, just want power. He can only hope they kill each other with sticks. I do not know if you can do much more “
Back to Vote
However, most analysts agree that it is very difficult for either of these two conditions is met. neither Rajoy has shown signs of being willing to step aside, nor can seem open to reduce their claims to subscribe an alliance. Everything indicates that in two months the Spaniards will have to vote again.
“there will surely be in the next few weeks new attempt investiture “
” Sanchez said Medero- probably will in the coming weeks a new attempt investiture. But everything indicates that we are moving to new elections, something that people do not want. The impression of citizenship is not agreed on power-sharing issues. So they will be forced to prove that shall endeavor to avoid having new elections, but did not succeed. “
What if necessary to vote again ? “The results are very even she continued. Maybe a part of the electorate of C’s to tip over the PP. It could also be that the PSOE will be punished, and that some of that discontent can transfer to. But I think the maximum that can vary from five to ten seats at most. It will not change the parliamentary arithmetic “
p dir => “.” Ltr “> Barragan agreed on the diagnosis. “If he said elections were held tomorrow, the map would equally fragmented. There might be some minor change, but would continue the blockade. What can give greater volatility is that C’s and can not have a solid electoral base. But still, the changes are not substantive. “
The PSOE and C’s can explode in a possible vote to have been the only ones who tried to form a government?” Obviously, the signing of the pact leaves to the electorate the image of moderate and capable of agreeing parties. However, the ideological polarization is such that it is not clear that moderation is necessarily decisive in electoral terms, “said Ruiz Rodriguez.
” If elections were held tomorrow, the map would equally fragmented “
Herrero agreed with the latter assessment: the balance tips more toward ends toward the center. “Undoubtedly, this favors the PP, that have made him the great martyr of the situation, and is the only one that has been clear throughout the process. And also we, who has done more or less the same: stay in position. “
However, even get to steal all seats to C’s, the PP will not reach you to govern alone. with this, everything will depend on political negotiation, a concept that seems to exist in the vocabulary of the current Spanish leadership. Thus, the dilemma remains the same, an alliance of left between PSOE, can and forces minor or a major national pact between the two historical parties.
“A leftist government would be unstable and probably short-lived. The PP has an absolute majority in the Senate, which would allow him to reject every law approved by Congress. That much delay government action and would do very stuck. The best would be a coalition between the PSOE and the PP, but still Sanchez and head Rajoy is impossible. If both parties change their candidates may itself could have an approach, “concluded Sánchez Medero.
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