Galicia and the Basque Country will vote this Sunday to elect new regional parliaments, in a poll that will be key in the framework of the political blockade that continued in Spain after two general elections.
In the region of Galicia, polls indicate that the winner will be the people’s Party, and its leader, Mariano Rajoy, in his fort, the political, the only autonomy that is still ruled by an absolute majority. In a moment of great tension, a victory will consolidate the prestige of the conservative leader after losing in two votes, his investiture as candidate for the presidency of the Spanish government.
But also the results will be important for the leader of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, to see if in Galicia and in the Basque Country, the socialists continue to lose votes after two general elections in a row with the worst results of its history in the democracy.
In both autonomous communities are elected 75 legislators in both chambers of deputies, by which the majority is formed with 38 representatives.
An average of studies trends and public opinion grants to the PP in Galicia, 39.2% of the votes and absolute majority, in the second place Tides-we Can (17.5%) and third party, the PSOE (15.3 per cent). the Poor prognosis for the socialists to which we Can submit, again, to the "sorpasso," which takes them to second place.
The forecasts in the Basque country awarded to 26.8% in the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), which does not reach the 38 deputies to the absolute majority. You have to make compromises and options should be negotiated with Bildu, a nationalist radicals, to 16.7%, the third we Can with 15.8 per cent, after the PSOE, with 8.3% and last PP to 8.0%.
The basque government published a survey that gives 26-27 seats to the PNV, followed by the radical nationalists of Bildu (16), then we Can (15-16). PSOE and PP maintain the tendency to lose votes, half of its current representation according to the polls, and both would be left with 8 seats.
Rajoy aims to be able to gather more deputies to the 170 with that account so that in case of another endowment of power to win in the second vote, with one abstention, that will allow him to govern in minority.
But the PNV has in its favour the peculiarity of the electoral legislation basque that allows you to be elected the candidate who obtains highest number of votes and not counted negative votes. Anyway, los nationalists have become to insist that in no case will allow Rajoy again to govern.
in order To overcome an alliance between the nationalists and We, the PNV needs to add the votes of the PSOE or the PP, in the latter case to change of a support of abstention for a minority government of Rajoy. All pretty complicated.
After the polls can occur days of tense negotiations. A solution, if there is, it has to be found to open pass a motion of investiture. Pedro Sanchez raises the possibility of a government of the socialists allied with Can but numbers do not reach, and up to now, the leadership of the PSOE vein to the former outraged that supporters of a referendum pro-sovereignty only for the catalans. For socialists this means compromising the territorial unity of Spain and refuse to consider that support.
But Sanchez insists and even to achieve an absolute majority of deputies are willing to negotiate with the independence of the pujol, Democratic Party, and the Republican Left of Catalonia. In both cases these forces secessionist argue uncompromising the referendum on sovereignty.
"We have to avoid at all costs, Rajoy re-govern", he cried yesterday Pedro Sanchez. The PSOE, in its long crisis, which has made him lose half of his caudal is deeply divided. Eight regional leaders of the first level, seven would prefer to negotiate an agreement rigorous with the popular support by the abstention technique a minority government.
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