We can in the new political scenario of Spain Marcos Roitman – Daily and Radio Uchile

• Marcos Roitman
• Friday July 8, 2016 at 7:57 pm

the elections of June 26 have left a lesson, polls are unreliable when 33 percent of the electorate is undecided on voting. However, in Spain it was not the first time that surveys fail. In 1993, during the political crisis of the PSOE, with cases of corruption, LAGs and Felipe González low hours, all opinion polls gave the Popular Party winner. Similarly, the first estimates exit polls, which corroborated. At the end of the count, the winner was the PSOE who won a relative majority with 38, 78 percent of the vote and 159 deputies, while the Popular Party, arrived at 34, and won 141 seats. No one spoke of electoral fraud, although polls and the results did not match. On this occasion, the June 16, 2016, we, an expert in generating rumors, talks about electronic ballot stuffing to prevent US-can adelantase the PSOE. In other words, that the Ministry of Interior a plot was hatched to prevent the Sorpasso . That is, the second and the third was the third second. Without any basis, the rumor spread, but has not had greater relevance, has sown doubt. Just to not make a thorough analysis of the loss of more than one million votes.

It has been two decades and in percentage terms, the Popular Party achieved, this time 137 seats, with 33 04 percent, while the PSOE picks the worst result ever, 85 deputies and 22.35. The electoral topography is not the same. They have new players who were not on stage, and on the other hand, the crisis of 2008 still leaves political corpses emerged. And Izquierda Unida nationalist minorities, whose weight was noted when it was necessary to get the votes for an absolute majority and form a government has given way to a parliament to four Basque and Catalan nationalist bands more. The dispersion of the vote with two axles the Popular Party on the right and the center-right Citizens and the PSOE as a clear representative of social democracy and US-Podemos, heterogeneous conglomerate, where raw Podemos. The unstable equilibrium already noted in the legislature failed, born 20 December 2015. There was no agreement or agreements. However, if it was possible to divert the Popular Party government, sending him to the opposition and ending with Mariano Rajoy. But Pablo Iglesias, secretary general of Podemos, preferred to play the card of political immediacy and an opportunistic approach to demand his presence as vice president of government and disqualify any agreement where they did not enjoy positions of power. Its 60 deputies had the key to a PSOE government and citizens be consolidated, they being watchdogs of government actions from outside. In addition, to have a passing, close to 50 million euros unimaginable budget. His vision of short-term, culminating in straighter, Mariano Rajoy legitimated and destroyed left.

The emergence of Podemos just two years ago, has been a change in the political map, at least in the space It occupies electorally, the center left Social Democrats and the post-communist. Has been slowly bringing together the forces to the left of the PSOE, from the anti-capitalist movement, Communists, Greens-environmentalists and social movements of broad spectrum. Their alliance policy has been to break the hegemony of the PSOE, while proposed as an alternative to the Popular Party. In this direction, he has sought confluences with nationalist forces and leftist platforms to circumvent the electoral law that benefits the majority parties. Its aim is frustrated. Even achieves a lower target, being a leader of the opposition and no guarantee now that can exercise as a third political force. The sum of seats will not allow an agreement of government with the PSOE, falling on deputies, but keeps the second place. The votes of the PP and Citizens confirm a simple majority to which can be added abstentions. The door open for a new mandate of Mariano Rajoy is the most likely short-term scenario, but a hypothetical end disagreement. The statements of the barons of the PSOE and Felipe González calling one abstention to favor a PP government, the opposition makes its way. Increasingly moves away more of the stage, a third election, which would be a real political catastrophe

Under an instrumental discourse. the now or never , States- we have failed to convince, the biggest being the injured party, Izquierda Unida, and Alberto Garzón. An alliance happened to clear the debt problem Izquierda Unida, whose amount exceeds EUR 10 million. The instrumental alliance falters if not mortally wounded. The logic of “sorpasso” , appealing to helpful vote and basic emotions: smile, love, the illusion of a change was insufficient. The first disagreements are noted. While Izquierda Unida and Alberto Garzón call demonstrations in rejection of Obama’s visit, the missile shield and NATO Secretary General Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, will attend the state dinner, will strengthen his hand and be photographed next to the “leader the free world. ” Similarly, in the midst of the debacle, its leaders argue that the time has come to be an institution, if not ever have been. Social movements, tides, and demonstrations are a drag. From overnight they dissociate themselves from the origins. 15-M no longer represents them. The strategy can take over the speech of the PSOE, Rodriguez Zapatero vindicating the “best president of government that has had Spain since the democratic transition”, and defined as the new social democracy, does not give results. His program riddled with ambiguities, went from indignation and rage to become the “smile of Spain”. Appealing to primary emotions, love, laughter, the heartbeat of democracy and an open heart, he reaped tears and left a void interpretation of the results, which have tried to cover with rumors of electoral fraud. Today, they call an outside study to the party to tell him that failed. But doctors were not political scientists, sociologists, international consultants? now incapable of knowing elections.

We can, should meditate if you really want to be an option for change in the medium and long term. Its leaders have already indicated that the results as “bad”, but do not talk about political defeat. They have been adept at handling the media and message worth them the place they have won in these two years, but its growth has stopped, if your goal was to weaken the PSOE to make residual force, they did not have achieved and what is worse, they have been immersed in their own trap. They have failed to distinguish between a right-wing government led by Rajoy and a social, systemic government, articulated around the PSOE, whose social policies and distinguishes them from the conservative right.

In short, the political map he has moved little, but the big difference between this election and failed of December 20, 2015, is the disappearance of the possibility of a PSOE government with Citizens and abstention of Podemos, overseeing from outside. a government of conservatives today looms, with more cuts. It rejuvenates the old policy and the new is not so new. More than old and new policy, we must speak of good or bad policy. In this sense any resignation, all justifications. Who plays to the emotions do not understand politics. If you sow laughs most likely, it is to harvest tears and cries.