Spanish elections: the triumph of fear – ElLitoral.com

Spanish elections: the triumph of fear

Many Spanish political analysts continue to seek the reasons for the election results map out the surveys. All pollsters, including official CIS (Sociological Research Centre), gave a meager result the Popular Party and relegated to third place the Socialist Party under Sorpasso left through United We Can, a red vehicle that merged two brands, we and Izquierda Unida. Even polls exit polls granted the set of a dwindling minority of the right photo and a comfortable second place to no socialist left.

But as the night wore the comicio , it was confirming an unexpected result that gave 137 seats to the party of Mariano Rajoy, 85 socialism (five less than in the previous election) and jug of iced water for Unidos Podemos, with 71 seats in an awkward third.

Many looks, as it can not be otherwise, they head to the UK and the tsunami caused by the triumph of brexit involving abandonment of Europe. The benchmark might be worthy of consideration and may be a small percentage of the result has been built on the fear of the unknown: a Europe without Europe it is a lot. But it happens that in any stretch of the campaign talked about this problem, none of the four candidates attended the problem posed by the British referendum, nor the right-wing wave sweeping Europe led by the “spring patriotic” Marine Le Pen.

the first observation must dedicate to vote coalition Unidos Podemos. When this confluence is consolidated in late April, the polls gave a small erosion vote can and a significant recovery of Izquierda Unida, buttressed by its young leader, Alberto Garzón, the politician with the highest rating in Spain, a fact underpinned by CIS. This indicated that the merger implied atypical sum of the left, ever faced, we merit to be open to this option, and the number of votes that could bring Garzón. The failure of the socialist investiture and high levels of corruption popular, made of States we a perfect electoral machine. It was not a sum, everything multiplication of votes.

But it happens that the communication strategy of the Popular Party did a commendable job. First, it Polarized choice: us or chaos. The apocalypse was designated recovering all parapraxes Podemos in the previous investiture process and especially the ideological liquidity Pablo Iglesias never tired of expressing throughout the campaign. Their claim to rescue the true social democracy, the emphasis on a future coalition government with the PSOE and the insistence of projecting Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, served the Popular Party to mark the Achilles heel of training with serious identity problems .

Why surveys granted a triumph to United we can? Maybe when the CIS made its last measurement it was realistic, but it is from this data that the popular build their story. And if the result of the election look is perceived that the PSOE has lost votes as expected: 90 to 85 seats have passed the worst result in its history. Citizens has also undermined their seats. And United We Can has released only 71 seats, ie repeated the result, just like the last election, 69 of Podemos and 2 Izquierda Unida.

The first explanation he pointed to the fact that when the Popular Party inoculate fear and points out, the polls confirm that the campaign Unidos Podemos, with a strong emotional component, was giving good results. But to bring out all its contradictions, Mariano Rajoy took suffrages Citizen and possibly enough votes liberal socialism. Enough to raise their electoral floor, supported by the conservative vote seniors, and up to 123-137 seats. Not much in absolute terms but in the variable of choice is a breath of fresh air to the right. Another issue to consider is the abstention rose 26.8 December to 30.16 on Sunday. This means that around a million and a half citizens stayed home, and historically progressive vote.

Now, new looks and in-depth study of the voting population by population, allow better read this unusual result. Meanwhile, expect the formation of new groups of deputies and see how the new endowment is emerging, since these results also sees clear a new government. The socialist Pedro Sanchez emerges stronger despite losing votes has since been second and Albert Rivera, leader of Citizens, even with a decline of votes remains key to choosing a president.

Neither promises, so far, to vote for Mariano Rajoy. A third choice? In Christmas. But Spain would not survive.