Madrid, España.- More than 35 million Spaniards are called to vote on Sunday in a municipal and regional elections held in an unprecedented political scene with two booming and emerging parties that are considered the ultimate test before General elections scheduled for later this year.
According to the polls, we can and Citizens achieve representation for the first time in regional executives and dozens of municipalities in which, for more than 30 years, they have ruled alternately the conservative Popular Party (PP), Mariano Rajoy, and (PSOE) Socialist Party.
The focus will be on the two emerging formations, which in a few months revolutionized the polls. Both left party Podemos, considered “brother” of the Greek Syriza Alexis Tsipras, as the centrist Citizens, emerged in 2006 in the region of Catalonia, facing its first nationwide election day.
The question is if you get enough support in the polls to oust the traditional parties or if they come into the institutions through pacts and coalitions, which seems most likely.
The surveys indicate that the PP , which currently governs in Spain and in 10 of the 13 regions that held elections Sunday, could lose its absolute majority in two of their most important strongholds: Madrid and Valencia, which governs the conservative training for 20 years.
The party accuses the three year term of the PP in the central government, marked by economic crisis, cuts, austerity policies and corruption scandals, as we saw recently in the elections held in the region of Andalusia, where they lost 17 seats.
If we can threaten to “steal” votes to the PSOE and the United Left (IU), the third political group in the national parliament, Citizens is the nightmare Rajoy match. Not only ahead of elections on Sunday but also in the upcoming general.
The PSOE, in the midst of an unprecedented crisis and strengthened only in part on his victory without an absolute majority in the region of Andalusia, Nor has it easy on Sunday, but could regain through post-electoral pacts some regions it lost in 2011, Castilla La Mancha and Extremadura.
According to the Spanish press, there has been a recent rapprochement Citizens And we socialists, led by Pedro Sanchez, only close the door to possible alliances with its historic adversary, the PP, and the independence coalition Bildu in the regions of the Basque Country and Navarra (north).
The thrust of the emerging political forces left behind in the polls two formations currently represented in the Spanish Parliament: United Left (IU) and the Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) centrist. Both have experienced internal crises in recent months and they fear a leak of votes can and citizens.
The regional elections are held in 13 of the 17 autonomous communities of Spain, in all but the so-called historic communities . Andalusia, which voted last March 22, Catalonia, Galicia and the Basque Country
In Catalonia, the city will become a sort of first round of the regional planned on September 27, which aim to become in a plebiscite in the middle of the independence process by the regional government Artur Mas driven.
In the municipal elections, where the mayors of 8,122 municipalities throughout the country, much of the attention will be chosen will be on Madrid and Barcelona.
The capital of Spain takes 24 years ruled by the PP, which hopes to defend his mandate as head of Esperanza Aguirre list, one of the strongest and most controversial of the conservative education policies. However, in recent weeks, now Madrid’s candidacy, political platform made up of members of Podemos and other left-wing parties gained ground in the polls, headed by former Judge Manuela Carmena, 71.
The situation is similar in Barcelona, where Ada Colau, driving the antidesahucios movement in Spain and platform leader Barcelona in Comú could unseat the Catalan nationalist candidate Xavier Trias (CiU) and take charge of the city council of the capital Catalonia region (northeast).
The data show that the party that wins the municipal and regional elections also due in the general election. This time, no clear winner in the polls and a fragmented political scene than ever, the focus will be on the post-electoral pacts, which could lead the way to La Moncloa.
Spain, the two-party to multi-party: End of stability?
The emergence of new parties has overturned the political map Spanish: bipartisanship is now opening to a multiparty model in which, according to surveys, four political forces choose to rule in the Spanish institutions after the election day on Sunday.
The campaign of these municipal and regional elections will be remembered as one of the most competitive and uncertain in recent history of the country, to the ultimate test for a system that for over 30 years has set the rules of Spanish politics, with a two-party alternation in government: the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the conservative Popular Party (PP), the current president of Mariano Rajoy government.
While emerging formations can and Citizens appealed to the illusion these days and the contrast, traditional they made an appeal to the stability and warned of the risks of a scenario without a clear majority governments .
“(That scenario) is not necessarily bad,” muses in conversation with Fernando Vallespín dpa, Professor of Political Science at the Autonomous University of Madrid and former president of the Center for Sociological Research of Spain.
“One of the great virtues of the Spanish political system has so far been the stability and governability, but after the crisis of legitimacy that arose as a result of the economic crisis (…) I think the new parties have contributed to recover for social policy sectors that had lost hope of being represented by the major parties, “he says.
The only question is, according to political scientist, whether it will be possible to control a “tetrapartidista” system in which it seems that the PP and the PSOE have to share headlining with the emerging parties, the centrist Citizens and we considered “brother” of the Greek Syriza Alexis Tsipras.
The Spanish intense electoral calendar started last March 22 with elections in the region of Andalucia (south), where no absolute majority victory of the PSOE, ruling there for 30 years, and the absence of an alternative government, maintained the “blocked” due to the impossibility of forming a government.
region’s main opposition parties in the Andalusian Parliament-the conservative PP, we and citizens thwarted three times the inauguration of the Socialist candidate, Susana Diaz as president of Andalusia.
Is it possible that this situation is repeated in other regional governments after the elections of May 24?
“What is happening (in Andalusia) is quite symptomatic of insecurity with new parties in forming the government because it does not yet know if the pacts benefit them or They harm them. My personal impression is that after Sunday’s election itself will facilitate good governance, “says Vallespín.
This will require progress in what is called culture of pacts, little developed so far a Spain largely accustomed to absolute majority. In a scenario of coalition or minority executives, dialogue, collaboration and concessions should take over from a model of tension and disqualifications.
“We will enter a situation of instability until this culture of pacts to settle. Let’s spend some time a little ‘Italian’. to see how majorities are generated and stable arrangements are established, “says Vallespín
The political map that is drawn in Spain after the entry of can and Citizens, whose real support on Sunday check in the polls, is getting closer to that predominates in Europe, with fragmented parliaments and several coalition governments.
“What is happening now in Spain it has occurred previously in other European countries where voting tends to fragment and prevailing volatility. Citizens and are not clearly ascribed to a match. On the other hand, is unlikely to happen, even remotely, as in Greece, where the system has completely broken the previous games, “says Vallespín.
In the survey a possible intuits “punishment” of citizens to the traditional parties in a context of economic crisis, institutional discredit and outbreak of corruption, but can not predict whether the loss of votes will be mild or loud, not even if they take place at all Spanish territory.
The situation is uncertain for both new parties, without prior experience in elections at national level, as hitherto majority, also they play their future in general elections due at the end of year in the country.
“We can not exclude that (those formations) Check out a good result on Sunday. They will lose many votes, but that does not mean they disappear. Much less, “predicts Vallespín.
Major parties in municipal and regional elections in Spain
The Spaniards are called to vote on Sunday in a municipal and regional elections that will face the ultimate test of the general planned at year end in a political landscape marked by the emergence of two emerging parties. Then, the main formations competing
– Popular Party (PP). The ruling party in Spain, Mariano Rajoy to the head, go to the polls for the second time this year after the debacle suffered in the region . Andalucía, losing 17 seats is currently in front of 10 of the 13 regions that held elections and more than 3,000 villages Madrid and Valencia are the main bastions preserve
-.. Socialist Party ( PSOE): The most important opposition party, led by Pedro Sanchez, comes to the appointment of Sunday amid its worst crisis, which began with the electoral defeat of the general elections of 2011, although somewhat strengthened by his victory in Andalusia region in which won a victory without an absolute majority and which has not yet been able to form a government by not receiving the support of other parties. Seeks to recover two of its main regional strongholds, Extremadura and Castilla La Mancha, where the PP ruled the last four years
– We can. The party emerged just over a year in Spain to heat stroke of the indignant could break into other regional parliaments after winning 15 seats in Andalusia. Concurs with the regional elections themselves but not to municipal, where its members have been integrated with other leftist parties in political platforms acronyms. Nationwide is led by university professor Pablo Iglesias
– Citizens:. Born in 2006 in the region of Catalonia as an alternative to nationalism option, the party led by Albert Rivera has been climbing up the polls recent months. Located in the center of the new political scene outlined in Spain, could be key in any post-electoral pacts
– United Left (IU). The third parliamentary force in Spain may fall to fifth place in numerous municipalities and regions if it is confirmed that the polls predict. Some party members have chosen to join civic platforms where militants can match, as is now the case of Madrid, which aims to conquer the city council of the Spanish capital
-. Union Progreso and Democracy (UPyD) Party led by the former Socialist Rosa Diez, center founded in 2007, he lives an internal crisis with leaking their members Citizen. It is now the fourth political force in the Congress of Deputies could disappear in institutions where representation had so far. In Andalusia failed any seats.
By Ana Lazaro Green / DPA
No comments:
Post a Comment