The People’s Party launched the first preference 27.7%, Can ranks second for the first time in the time series of the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), with 23, 9% and PSOE back to third place with 22.2%. The rise of libertarian socialist and fall are the data most eloquent This survey CIS, under the Prime Minister.
But, the study contains contradictory data and flagrant contradiction between the “direct intention to vote”, which can be imposed clearly and figures that arise after the call “demoscópica kitchen” . So for many critics presents a step with the current balance of electoral forces panorama.
To explain clearly. In the section “direct vote” when it asks respondents for whom they will vote We can obtain 19.3% followed distantly by the PP, 12.9% and 12.4 PSOE almost . the same level
These are the “raw” data that arise when asked respondents: If elections were held tomorrow, which party to vote? But for these preferences to the predictions of the outcome many variants finally “rounded” analyzing this circumstance “demoscópica” (study surveys) and predicting a figure taken.
For example, taking into account Memory vote respondent, political allegiance , etc. But these variants are impossible to value can as movement just completed its first year of life.
Lots of surveys recorded surprising results of progress can that in many cases leads first place in districts where movement hardly exists and has no known leaders. It is the case of Navarre, a study sponsored by the foral parliament.
The last valuable survey has been published in the journal El País , made by the company Metroscopia 15 -16 January. The study predicts 28.2% of the votes can, 23.5% to 19.2% Socialists and the Popular Party.
The study of CIS was made days before El País .
The conflicting data from the study of the CIS (state) are numerous. For example, figures from the CIS as a leader most valued benefit the socialist Pedro Sanchez pros 3.68 on a scale from 1 to 10. Mariano Rajoy ranks last with 2.24 points.
Another mismatch: the PSOE appears as the party that arouses more sympathy and closer to the ideas of respondents while 16.6% can only get 15.9% ,.
The other data to complete the list of intended votes awarded fourth place Izquierda Unida, 5.2% and 4.6% after the People’s Union and Democracy (Rosa Diaz) with 4.6% , Citizens 3.1%, and the Catalan Convergence and Union Republican Left 3% and 1.6%.
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