The exhibition public and landing on the political scene as a party have slowed and sustained upward trend since May can. That does not mean deflation or not keep your options become the most votes in a general election, but that citizens will undergo the same scrutiny as other parties and that he brings the same ups and downs after a continuous rise.
According to the poll Metroscopia for El Pais, can have an estimate of vote of 25%, exceeded by 27% of the PSOE and above 20% which achieves the PP. A month ago was the party of Pablo Iglesias that beyond the two who ruled Spain in 26 years of constitutional democracy
Since that survey to this, can have lived eventful one month.; Since its formal incorporation into a political party to the dispute over the contract Errejón Inigo, his number two , University of Málaga, including the presentation of the basis of its program economic and media retreat after overexposure. The Church itself has gone from contertulio that criticizes leader interviewed that are requested responses on specific issues and will question their positions. The acceptance of its new programmatic bases measured in this survey, away from the more radical proposals of the European elections.
At the time it was made the previous survey lived impact cases Notable corruption, as demonstrated this week the dramatic increase in more than 20 points the degree of citizen concern about corruption, according to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS).
In sporting terms, we is already in the field competing with the rest and, above all, scrutinized closely. Over time, obviously, is going to have more past and a structure that increases the points of friction with reality, the margin of error and media pressure.
The future is preserved because it keeps the tendency to challenge the political hegemony PSOE and PP, consolidating its ability to blow up what is known as bipartisanship. In fact, direct vote, ie no kitchen or weighting of any previous data, we still ahead, with 18%, although in the previous survey had 22.2%, in full political ferment their Please.
For its evolution and consolidation of its possibilities must still expect the trend of future surveys.
Their leader has not had a good month as brand new secretary general, as The survey, which reflects a decline in their image that corresponds to relevant facts as the absence of televisions after a poor performance in an interview with Ana Pastor in La Sexta. Despite this, it is worth the best political leader of all, or more precisely, the leader less negatively evaluated: the positive balance for November (+ 1 point) passes to a negative -17 points (with 51% disapproving compared with 34% approval).
In the analysis of global trends, the PSOE resists through increased mobilization of their constituents. Pedro Sanchez’s party gained in fidelity to vote from 35% to 49%, ie it has recovered a portion of the electorate who abandoned him before. In fact, in general three years ago, the Socialists had 28.7% of valid votes and now the estimate is 27.7%. Not the best thing for Sanchez, but is higher than the previous month and allows you to keep options being the most voted.
The strategy of the PSOE leadership is precisely to try to recover the possible Voters turned away in favor of abstention and able. Confident that the scrutiny can cause the return of those voters who support now Iglesias, who put at third.
The goal of PSOE are the municipal and regional elections in May, in which part of such a lousy results in 2011 that any progress can be considered a success. Those elections were the most disastrous for the Socialists and is not likely to drop further. Retrieve the government of a community or a provincial capital can be seen as a victory in the PSOE, burdened further by fragmentation of the vote on the left into new applications.
The picture that draws the survey distributed almost similar in three games the chances of winning the election. The PP, with 20%, is the lowest is and presents a path to free fall. Mariano Rajoy’s party pays as any citizen unrest and, especially, the climate of corruption. It is more than 14 points of their vote in the general three years, with a tendency to move from an absolute majority to become the third force. It is the party that accuses more political discrediting and demobilization of voters, resulting in a low turnout. The percentage of PP voters who now say they will not vote alone is compensated by citizens who never went to the polls and now would support We can if you keep this mobilization for a year.
This data so negative in now is, paradoxically, the only source of hope PP, because they are not voting which he has gone to other options, but prefer to stay home. Insufflate convince or fear for an eventual victory is the way we can regain that lost ground. Rajoy had based its success on fiscal reform and improvement of the economy, but there is news that effect. To make it so, should become visible three factors: the recovery is real, that citizens perceive it and, moreover, the government attributed merit. Today that perception and those three conditions are not transmitted in the survey, because the citizen pessimism is maintained and that outweigh other factors, such as political disrepute. The days in which the survey data were collected came the resignation of Health Minister Ana Mato precisely by linking to corrupt Gürtel network. And there seems to be perceived regeneration speech in Congress tried to make the next day the Prime Minister.
It does not help anything worn Rajoy image. Eight of every 10 Spaniards disapprove of his management-the 79% – and only 19% gives a thumbs up. That means the displeasure or discomfort PP voters with their leader is remarkable, calling into question their credibility and ability to convince those voters to leave the firm abstention and go to the polls. Soraya Saenz de Santamaria also maintains a damning assessment, below the other leaders. Above all still positive assessment King. In less than three years as head of a government with absolute majority and institutional power that had never before had anyone in democracy, Rajoy is now the political leader with the worst rating.
There is a slight recovery IU and UPyD in the absence of confirmation in the coming months. Alberto Garzón, expected future leader of IU, share with a positive assessment only surpassed by Iglesias, although it is known much less.
No comments:
Post a Comment