LONDON (approved) .- Less than a month after the referendum on British membership in the European Union (EU) is made, some 44 million British prepare to vote in an election that will define not only the future the UK, but also the bloc.
the registered voters will determine whether Britain stays in the EU or independent of the block. The latter possibility would end 43 years of marriage. The ballot will take only the question “ Should the UK remain a member of the European Union “, and will have options “ Yes / No ”
the debate on membership of the country within Europe has deeply divided the nation and faces from ordinary citizens to celebrities and politicians.
It is also a “test of fire” is to British Prime Minister David Cameron, who could announce his resignation in case he wins the ‘Brexit’, as known at the exit of UK EU.
the campaign to remain within the bloc “Britain stronger in Europe “(stronger Britain in Europe), which sees the UK will fall into a deep recession if you leave the block, has the support of president Cameron, much of his cabinet, the leader of the opposition Labour Jeremy Corbyn, a liberal sectors of British business community, as well as historians, academics, trade unionists and artists.
the group seeking the block output, “Vote leave” (Vote to exit) has as its motto principal that the UK can better control its borders, finances and security if you leave the EU and got the support of the former mayor of London, the conservative politician phlegmatic Boris Johnson, the former Minister of Labour and Pension Ian Duncan Smith, as the president of the chamber of British Industry, military authorities, the actor Michael Caine and the head of xenophobic UK Independence Party (UKIP), among others.
“Vote Leave” took the publication last 26 May a report by the National Statistics Office, which concluded that net migration to the UK rose to 333,000 in 2015, although the government had promised to reduce it to 100,000. That document stressed that net migration of European citizens was 184,000.
To Farage, the immigration numbers “out of control”, while Johnson considered to remain within the EU “shall mean terminate permanently immigration controls. “
forecast
in an interview with appro , Kent Matthews, a finance professor at the University Cardiff (Wales) and member of the group “Economists for the Brexit” says that the UK will get many long-term benefits if it abandons the EU
He explains. “the European Union is shrinking in terms of economic growth, while other regions are growing by leaps and bounds. If we remain within the EU will lose many trade agreements that otherwise could sign if we were out.
“We have to give a clearer message about the economic and financial benefits of leaving the EU, which They are many. Voters will have the power to decide at the polls, but once you vote no going back “, he says.
However, several organizations such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies in London, the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned otherwise. if the UK leaves the EU will have very negative effects for the British economy
a report by the British Treasury issued last May 23 concluded that the output Britain EU take a deep economic recession more than a year in the country and the loss of at least 820,000 jobs jobs in just two years.
the document of the Ministry of Finance he warned that the ‘Brexit’ cause “profound and immediate economic shock” in the UK, leading to a decline in economic growth of between 3% and 6%.
he also stressed that there will be a sharp increase inflation to be put at risk more than 500 thousand jobs and increase by 10% property prices.
“it’s been only eight years since Britain entered the worst recession the country has experienced since World War II (1939-1945). Every region of our country suffered as a result, “said Finance Minister George Osborne conservative, referring to the report. “The British people worked very hard to make the nation routed again. Do we pull now all away? “He asked.
Cameron considered the option of leaving the EU” it is self-destructive “for the country and said the possibility of ‘Brexit’ a few years after the country suffered a deep economic recession is comparable “to survive a fall and then run to the edge of a cliff”.
in this regard, the governor of the Bank of England (Central Bank) Mark Carney warned that risks to Britain if he leaves the EU “are huge”, since in that case the country “could enter a technical recession”, considered the decrease or generalized loss of economic activity through fall Gross Domestic product (GDP) for an extended period.
However, one of the main voices of the campaign for the ‘Brexit, former Minister Duncan Smith said that people should not believe the reports . it produces the British Ministry of Finance “and its very biased visions of the future”
in an interview with the BBC , he said: “the analysis of the Ministry of Finance ignores all benefits leave the EU. In addition, their previous forecasts proved wrong “.
The ‘Vote to go’ campaign focused in recent days on the issue of immigration by stating that if Britain is separated from the bloc may reduce the number of immigrants trying to reach the country, mainly in countries with high unemployment rates.
Meanwhile, analyst Steve Hilton, exconsejero head of the planning area and strategy Cameron, came out in support of ‘ Brexit ‘. . I said that Britain “must leave an arrogant EU without controls”
He said: “It is time for the future of the UK is in the hands of the people living in this country.” According to Hilton, the British EU membership “makes Britain is virtually ungovernable”.
Another group that advocates output bloc, Grassroots Out, said that Brussels “will stay with the wealth of financial City of London “if the country decides to remain in the EU” after a wave of new regulations “.
polls
the truth is that the latest opinion polls indicate that British voters are increasingly opting in favor of staying within the EU.
according to a survey by consultancy Opinium Research carried out for Sunday English the Observer , 44% of voters in the UK wants to continue within Europe, compared with 40% in favor of ‘Brexit’ and 14% who still has not decided how to vote. Among conservative voters, 48% are in favor of staying in the EU and 41% support the output.
Adam Drummond, chief analyst at Opinium Research, said that as the date approaches referendum “more and more Britons are in favor of continuing within the EU”.
for the expert, the trend could be due in part to the ultra-right of some supporters ‘Brexit’ position, especially conservatives who now identify with the xenophobic and anti-immigrant UK Independence Party (UKIP).
According to the survey, 52% of respondents believe that the UK will continue within the EU after the vote on June 23, while 23% believe it will become independent.
after being asked what effects they believe will bring the ‘Brexit’ finances, 31% said their homes have more economic problems, while 17% thought otherwise.
Another survey, conducted by the consulting ORB for the newspaper Daily Telegraph , he noted that 55% of Britons are in favor of continue within the EU, while 42% oppose. He stressed that more voters conservative aged 65 or older choose to support remaining in the block.
The British pensioners, who in the past were considered the main supporters ‘Brexit’ have begun to favor the opposite option, possibly fearing a strong impact on the national economy.
the survey ORB indicated that 16% of the electorate is undecided and could determine the outcome of the referendum.
Johnny Heald, chief analyst pollster, said that in previous referenda undecided voters tend to vote for the status quo . “Evidence of other referendums in countries like Ireland and Canada realize that those who told pollsters they did not know how to vote, ended up supporting the status quo to not feel convinced by the arguments of an output “said Heald
However, he cautioned. to win the permanence of Britain in the EU you will need to exercise their vote too young voters, something that has not always happened in the past .
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