For the first time in its history, Spain will hold elections for the second time in six months. Begins in May with the dissolution of parliament this week and the official announcement of the elections for June 26.
The political blockade, which has prevented the formation of government, since no party had with an absolute majority, it is a real threat in the new call. Polls predict again that no party will have enough votes to govern alone, and if the red lines of recent months are not raised, there is a risk of permanent political paralysis.
According paths polls yesterday Sunday newspapers published El País and ABC , the PP would be the first political force, but could only govern grand coalition with the PSOE. The Socialists, in turn, run the risk that the left bloc, which we are negotiating and Izquierda Unida, they surpass in votes and seats. The leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, paradoxically the same name as the founder of the PSOE, dreams of this call sorpasso.
Abstention will be key, because if participation falls a few points below the 70% (in December was 73%), the party in government, the PP Rajoy, a more faithful than the left bloc electorate will benefit.
“it is possible that the situation further clogging. Once seen that political parties have been able to lead to new elections, I am very pessimistic. There will be absolute majority of any party, and if none yields, as has happened now, there is risk of permanent tie, “he says Fernando Garea, parliamentary reporter of El País .
” It exasperating for citizenship “said Garea, who believes that social networks reinforce the most extreme theses parties. “With Twitter not have been possible transition, when the Communist Party had to make major concessions, for example,” adds this experienced writer.
More than “circus,” as the New York Times in its editorial on Monday, Garea believe there has been “a lot of theater”. Share this view political scientist Victor Lapuente, “From 20-D, most analysts agreed that the parties had no incentive to compromise. And so it has been. We have spent too many weeks with a game whose end was suspected from the beginning, “said Lapuente, author of The return of shamans , on the purists politicians, or charlatans, who in their opinion threaten the well common.
“in the medium and long term policy has to be explorers, those who dare to trace unexplored paths. An example has been the PSOE and Citizens pact, but has failed to unite more of political will. But something is desirable for Spain, “says political scientist.
Citizens has already announced that the pact with 200 proposals for reforms, symbolically signed on February 23 under the box The embrace , Genovés, no longer valid. The socialist leader Pedro Sanchez tested the alliance when the King entrusted to form a government, following the refusal of Rajoy, leader of the largest party, who, surprisingly, refused to take charge. But the coalition of socialists and Citizens was insufficient without the tactical support of Podemos, to rule and oust the PP from power.
Enric Juliana, parliamentary reporter of La Vanguardia , described in his Sunday article how “the fifth most populous country in the EU is bound to more than half year interim, following the catastrophic tie”. He unveiled details of these four months of “deep tactical game, crossed vetoes and blind maneuvers” as the camp that gave the Socialist leader the head of the caretaker government, Mariano Rajoy, the night of January 18. Sanchez suspended an invitation to dinner and after that rebuff Rajoy declined or shake hands during their meeting in Congress. Then to a grand coalition remains to be done.
Both Rajoy, who will break a record as head of government acting as the socialist leader, Pedro Sanchez, his political future are played in June. The two candidates show their cards in separate interviews published Sunday. In the journal ratio , Rajoy believes that the elections are “a lesser evil” because “the model of government that (PSOE coalition and we with independence support) drove, and happily not come to fruition, it would have been very detrimental to the interests of the Spanish people. “
the leader of the PP as an example close” the corralito in Greece a few months ago. ” If Rajoy can not be sworn in as President of the Government after the results of the 26-J, seek a dignified exit. But at the moment, is winning the game.
The socialist leader has more difficult. As Casimiro Garcia-Abadilla, former director of World , in his column entitled “Low Blows” he said, “there have been few politicians, except perhaps Adolfo Suarez -the first president of the democratic transition, to that his party has treated so badly “. It will be the candidate of the PSOE after the primaries on May 14, but does not exceed 90 seats in December, or even hypothetical Left bloc out more deputies, asked his head in his own party the same night election.
Sanchez had a very marked by red lines yours: we could not govern with the support of the Catalan separatists; nor let Rajoy continue as head of government. In an interview in World , reiterates that no pact with Rajoy and “vote Iglesias is to vote against the PSOE, is perpetuating Rajoy as president.”
They also repeated as leaders of their formations Albert Rivera and Pablo Iglesias Citizens Podemos. Rivera, the most valued political, is the only one in the polls favor benefits of citizenship, after these months of crossing the desert. However, their training would remain around 40 seats.
In the case of Podemos, which has suffered a serious internal crisis and has difficulty returning to maintain its regional alliances, the pact with the United Left, led by the young economist Alberto Garzón, it is now vital to their aspirations. These two forces, located to the left of the PSOE, can face together the challenge to unseat the Socialists in number of votes (and they succeeded but were separated and the electoral law hurts small parties) and seats.
the June session is not a second round because attend the same parties with the same candidates. In a second round to use, the Spaniards would have to choose between the two best placed in December, PSOE and PP. “The challenge raised by the Spanish people in December was put an end to bipartisanship. But the parties have failed. This new Spain has not passed the test.
For the first time the political class has not achieved its purpose. A second failed test would lead to a systemic crisis, far worse than the current political crisis, “said Didac Gutiérrez-Peris, director of European Studies at the Institute Viavoice Paris. Looking ahead to June, Gonzalez-Peris considers that influence more the pressure of the markets, which so far has been light, and the referendum on the exit of Britain from the EU, three days before the 26-J.
The call of June, the traditional month of exams in colleges and universities, is crucial in Spain. Citizens must overcome the boredom and re-tell the politicians what kind of government they want. And politicians interpret their vote with intelligence, creativity and broadmindedness. Thinking about future generations, not next election, in the words of Churchill.
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