This has been secured in a roundtable on electoral trends Metroscopia President Jose Juan Toharia; President GAD3, Narciso Michavila, and the director of the System Foundation and director of the magazine ‘Topics’ Jose Felix Tezanos.
During the meeting, organized by the Association of Parliamentary Journalists, the three have agreed that to govern Spain in the next legislature will be essential covenants and that while bipartisanship is in decline, you can not give him up for dead.
In this sense, Michavila sees the socialist Pedro Sanchez most likely to govern, yes agreement with other formations. “Nowhere is it written that has to be chairman of the largest party candidate”, he said, predicting that in the case of Sanchez, will difficult to do only with the support we can.
Soft trend He can downward For his part, believes the PSOE Toharia is leading in the polls, but followed closely by the PP, while we faced a “soft downward trend” and Citizens continues to climb positions. To Tezanos, the socialists are clearly on the rise while the PP continues to lose support.
In any case, all emphasize the difficulty of making a forecast about the next Congress by the complexity of the Spanish electoral system prevails the most voted and penalizes those who manage fewer votes parties.
To Michavila, the PP should be aware that “the vote of fear not only serves” to mobilize its electorate, as evidenced, in his view, the results achieved by Antoni Samaras of New Democracy in the Greek elections last January that gave victory to Syriza.
Nor is it enough with the economy in this sense, has recommended to PP to “change the chip” because “or taking strong measures in the social sphere” or “it will be very difficult” because it is not going to be enough either with improved macroeconomic figures. “If we have been able to rescue the Spanish economy, now have to rescue the Spanish economy”, he said.
Also responsible for Metroscopia believes that Rajoy will serve to instill fear of a possible pact We PSOE when his party is “very discredited” and footnote as president in the polls is minimum. In his view, the ‘popular’ “should present a draft positive and not simply throw garbage on the other”.
Also, Tezanos predicts a “disastrous” result for the PP if changes strategy and warning that a portion of the electorate –About all young people who face an unemployment rate of 55% and are “terrified” with future– can not assume them a “rational” vote. “When citizens have nothing to lose, they can still play desperate,” he warned.
On the margin of growth of emerging parties, Michavila explained that, in the event we like Citizens will depend on if they reach 15% of the votes in the parliamentary elections. If they exceed that threshold may “optimize” the translation of these votes into seats, but fall short it will be more difficult.
We can, as the PCE and IU in their best moments addition, three experts have agreed to remove importance to the results achieved by the formation of Pablo Iglesias in municipal and regional elections, recalling in his best applications from IU and the Communist Party were around 13% of the vote in municipal elections.
They have also agreed to downplay the fact that the general be in September or November, because the
Three exhausted given by the legislature. Michavila believes that Rajoy does not suit you advance them to coincide with the Catalan scheduled for September 27 because, although that would hurt sovereignists Catalan predicts, as Toharia, that in this community the PP could lose support that would go citizens both at regional and national level.
Also, doubt that the improving economy will translate into votes for the PP because, in his view, people perceive that the Government of Rajoy has “avoided bankruptcy of the Spanish economy, but at the cost of breaking the Spanish society “and will not reward this achievement.
(EuropaPress)
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