Posts to speculate, perhaps the result of Brexit has influenced the outcome of the elections in Spain on June 26, three days after the British referendum. You may also incidiera the paradoxical rise of Trump and the extreme right in the United States in recent months, returning to give wings to the most recalcitrant values. And maybe the last attacks of extremist Islam in Europe and the incessant flow of refugees from the war in the Middle East have also contributed to the PP votes in the second election, part of the vote of fear. Maybe the ups and downs of the stock market were also many other subtle messages that big business and the Ibex sent to the political class. It is impossible to count the variants that may have influenced the PP, against all odds, obtained 14 seats more in the second elections and leave asserted against upward aspirations of citizens.
About six months ago (06 / 01/16) commented in these pages the prospects of the Spanish electoral panorama after the first elections, where they could change many things because of the emergence of two new forces in parliament, citizens and Podemos. The two forces were, at that time, could form new alliances and strengthen the right-wing PP orientation or give the left a new composition to govern with a PSOE-We can guild. Before either of these two formulas could be realized, he had to overcome numerous obstacles. The alliance should have left besides PSOE and we can- with Basque and Catalan nationalist parties, an almost insurmountable obstacle because all major parties had declared their opposition to the sovereignty derives closed Convergence in Catalonia. Agreeing with these nationalist parties was and will remain a major obstacle because the consensus of national policy, which is to deny all kinds of unilateral declarations of independence would be broken. It was a so-called “red lines”, they said the parties have to agree. Each party had its own red lines, ie those points where they could not settle without risking losing important swaths of the electorate. Without going any further, we can not give up the principle of the independence referendum in Catalonia, which, when the agreement with the PSOE, would guarantee the iron-and opposition of the old patriarchs also commented that he – “barons” – the PSOE, who recommended the young general secretary Pedro Sanchez deaf to those songs of leftist sirens and head to the right of the map. Perhaps responding to this pressure, the PSOE would agree with Citizens, but then the leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, informed immediately Sanchez would ask divorce when he had not even consummate the marriage between the two major parties of the left.
a Citizens is was running out of room to maneuver. Once uncovered his semi-secret pact with Sanchez, and had no effect pressures Albert Rivera exercised covertly on the PP Mariano Rajoy abandon any aspiration to continue as president for networks of corruption party unstopped in power and it is appropriate to appropriate cleansing and that the Interior Minister Jorge Fernandez Diaz, will cease for his alleged involvement in secret investigations undertaken to discredit rival parties. The PP never took seriously those pressures that demanded purge its ranks and end corruption.
It is noted, therefore, that one of the statements made in the article published six months ago was wrong , namely the claim that the PP would suffer a steady erosion of voters as they were cases of corruption knowing that their leaders were allegedly involved. As if public opinion had finished tired or saturated so much corruption, it has
become a typical ingredient menu of Spanish politics and no longer draws attention to anyone except judges and journalists. The PP not only suffered some erosion but even managed to recover and returned to win in Valencia, where many of its leaders are in custody awaiting trial or investigated by different corruptions. He also won in Madrid, the community where probably more mayors and aldermen of the PP investigated for predatory practices. They are results that contradict the speech that the Spanish citizens want to clean the house of politics. On the contrary, there is an unsaid principle of politics in Spain under which no one is willing to give up, to come to power, the predatory practices and enrich themselves in a state where the mechanisms of transparency and accountability, although there on paper simply do not work, or work as fronts for the pillaging. Maybe corruption has “old fashioned” as a source of outrage among citizens, but still important considering equivalent to 4% of GDP, enough to eliminate much of the brutal cuts made in education and health, science and research and development.
The picture emerging from this second election is practically the same as before. There is a difference: the pressure of the socialist barons on its general secretary, Pedro Sanchez, has increased and is now emerging as a phenomenon which, if not well managed from the party leadership, could create cracks or form the embryo of future skirmishes that will determine who exercised effectively in the PSOE leadership. The decision of the party to abstain or not in the next vote of investiture of Rajoy in Congress (if it does occur) is not so much the result of the “patriotic” decision that everyone in the right-more the barons are demanding him Sanchez, but the result of that internal struggle to decide who has the rudder, or the old guard or diffuse and voluble Sanchez.
Meanwhile, it is relatively easy to understand why we have had such poor results, contrary to what most surveys predicted. His condition novice in the political arena was expressed on several occasions after the results of the first elections in their aspirations to have certain ministerial posts in a hypothetical future leftist government, in its conception of the figure and role of the judiciary in a “progressive” state, on its way to convey your message with some if not manierismo- bisoñada advertising, or the way of Churches or Errejón to define politics as “sexy” or less “sexy” (not known function what) and declared montoneros heart, which has plunged more than a few supporters who voted them in a horrible confusion and made them doubt the intellectual strength of its top leaders. In addition to having a stellar figuration in social networks, we succumbed relatively quickly to the customs, the language, prevarication and double set of parties and politics as usual manner, and in a game that looked new it shows especially.
in an article analyzing the current situation, forty days after the second elections, it is difficult to project possible solutions for the near future, which appears fraught with other red lines, less explicit but equally present the previous ones, in an environment characterized by a kind of immobilism sponsored by the constitutional operation. And it’s hard to do when you start to hear voices that speak of the landscape that we face not after the elections but after the third quarters. The Spanish electoral interregnum is guaranteed, and a long Russian winter will look like
Alberto Magnet
Barcelona 2016
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