The results of the general elections held in Spain last December 20 ended the reigning two-party-dominated by two major forces: the right-wing Popular Party (PP) and the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (center-left PSOE) – and involved the formation of a new political landscape dominated by four major players. Apart from the PP and the PSOE, we should note the new system forces the leftist Podemos, which reached 20% of the vote and 69 of the 350 deputies, the centrist Citizens, with 13% of the vote and 40 deputies, and endless nationalist forces that they can not be determinative get to decide what coalition governing in Spain. These are the four predictable stages of what could happen in the country in the absence of a clear majority to elect the next president of Government to lead the destinies of the nation.
1. A pact of common sense, which in politics is not always easy, among the three closest and moderate political forces of the system, that is, between the PP, PSOE and Citizen, which could add up to 253 deputies and solid majority to run the country. However, for the PSOE pact could mean the bear hug and mean their disappearance, something they know the socialist leaders, and citizens, as happened to other forces in the past, be annexed and engulfed by popular. It is a scenario that would be very logical but unenforceable. Another thing is that the PSOE and the PP citizens will govern without entering the executive, but also in that case would wear very large and is unlikely an alternative application. The Socialist Party suffered a severe crisis, with a beleaguered leader and strong internal divisions, and Citizens, after being disappointed in their political expectations (come to think of winning the elections and remained in a dishonorable fourth), it is literally knocked out with a low, if not zero, political initiative after seeing the harsh reality that threw the election results. A survey things are quite another what citizens vote.
2. A great deal of the left that would bring together the PSOE, we, the United Left (IU), the Catalan independence (ERC-DL) and even the pro-ETA BILDU, such a heterogeneous and diverse coalition so unable to reach the necessary consensus to govern country. It would most, passing the 175 deputies, but the PSOE lost the legitimacy to lead a coherent project that combines the search for a solution to the so-called “Catalan problem” and maneuverability needed to properly manage the still unfinished output the economic crisis in Spain, since we can refuse to accept the classic recipes sponsored by the European Union (EU) and the necessary but painful adjustments needed by the economy. A government of these features would be possible but I doubt that last more than a few months and probably the nation, again, it is doomed to see new elections.
3. A pact between the two great forces that until now dominated the PP and PSOE system without Citizens can not. Although it is the most desirable option for a good part of the Establishment, the most senior leaders of both forces -including surely Felipe González and José María Aznar and a good part of journalists, a political solution is not desired by the maximum Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez and his team, fearing being engulfed in future elections for the powerful force that we are we, now annulled politically United Left, which is responsible for Germanization of Spanish politics, in the sense that social democrats end up converted a secondary force behind the right and unable to vertebrarse as a credible alternative.
4.No we lose sight of the perspective of a new general election to try to clarify the confusing and fragmented political landscape that emerged from the elections on December 20. That possibility is not ruled out early elections, although it is almost certain that the Socialists will avoid at all costs to the extent that it is more than possible that a new election date more deputies lose face and we came out of the polls in a situation a major weakness, while popular, as polls indicate, would benefit and would raise some seats. Do not forget that the PP would have been lacking just ten more deputies to govern, and if we add that the deputies of Citizens and popular with those ten MEPs who I mean leave the accounts for almost govern with an absolute majority. However, the prospect of new elections would create the conditions for a deep crisis in the socialist, a safe scenario can and polarization between the PP and the exacerbation of a number of challenges that are on the table, as the Catalan secessionist threat and the economic crisis, requiring a rapid response.
So, and in circumstances dominated by caution and fear of all political parties to any movement causes an electoral actors wear future, what is clear is that no government is formed or the end the only alternative to the current parliament formed by many forces without a clear majority is that there will be early elections and that the cycle of government will not complete four years envisaged by the Constitution. The government that emerges will be weak, you should find great deals to get their projects and, ultimately, a new way of governing will be installed in Spain, but that does not prevent that instability is the dominant trend and that’s the best way to resolve the outstanding problems. There will be elections before four years, but the question is when. Another issue that remains is to know what is best for Spain: if a weak government or call for new elections. But that is flour that I leave for another matter. We’ll see what happens.
Ricardo Angoso
ricardoangoso
[email protected]
No comments:
Post a Comment