Paf, a bookmaker founded in 1966 in Aland, Finland, and that all the benefits intended for social purposes (after salaries), maintains an extensive line of bets on the upcoming local and regional elections, including Madrid . Very common in other countries such as UK but rare in our country.
The bet is not focused on who will win the elections, something that at this point few surveys put in doubt-but who will rule, which moves in a difficult terrain to predict because, with so evenly matched results may be different pacts of government.
To the Mayor of Madrid, the favorite in the betting is the PP candidate, Esperanza Aguirre. If she governs finally pay 1.33 euro wagered.
The second favorite, although some polls place him as the third political force in the capital, is the socialist Antonio Carmona that govern -presumiblente with the Madrid platform Now, get in the bosillos their Bettors 3 euros per euro played.
He is tied with Manuela Carmena, the number one Now Madrid, the municipal platform that encompasses can, win, Equo, and members of neighborhood associations.
As with any type of bet, the results fluctuate. For example, late yesterday afternoon, his government paid 3 euros per euro bet, even first thing in the morning was paid to 11 euros, and noon to 4. Why this change so remarkable in just some hours? We asked Jorge Ruiz, head of bets Paf.es: “I think it might be because the last appearances of candidates and televised debates … in these debates the lesser known candidates present their programs and people see a possible alternative to bipartisanship … If there were more debates could change further installments today (yesterday) there have been more people who see it as a natural alternative to Aguirre, not so much as to Carmona. They bet on the surprise. “
An analysis of these fluctuations could be used to check the impact they have campaign events and be, therefore, an element of judgment to consider cabinets for candidates when evaluating the work that is being done.
Villacis, last in the last two places in the municipal auction would be David Ortega (UPyD), whose victory would pay eight euros per euro played and surprisingly far as, Begoña Villacis, Citizens, rule that would provide a sum succulent who is the play for her. Pays 26 to 1. Suffice it to say that almost the same pay that the victory of Getafe at the Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday.
It is curious that values more likely to David Ortega became mayor of Madrid that he does Begoña Villacis, considering that UPyD appears in all polls as much injured by the emergence of Citizens and few believe that obtain representation.
From the bookmaker explained that, had a pact of government between the PSOE and -pongámosle Madrid now only be paid to it desginado mayor.
On the other hand, in the area of the Community of Madrid, bettors are clear that the favorite is the popular Cristina Cifuentes. If you get to lead the next government, who has backed her win just 1.16 euros per invetrtido euro, 17 cents less than victory of Aguirre in the capital.
The second list is the socialist Angel Gabilondo, quoted at 4.50 euros per euro played. Behind are Jose Manuel Lopez, Podemos (6 euros), Ignacio Aguado, Citizens (8 euros), Luis Garcia Montero, IU (31 euros), and Ramón Marcos, UPyD (51 euros).
From the bookmaker ensure that this kind of bets are the guy who usually work. “Our difference with other more powerful competitors alike is to offer betting entertainment, such as television Realitis, betting on Goya or the Oscars, or music festivals like Eurovision,” says the head of Paf.es bet.
In the bookmaker Luckia.es, plays only focus on Madrid City Council, and have nearly identical results than its competitors.
Both lines of bets will be settled on Saturday . at 22 hours, only 11 hours before they open polling stations
Who knows: the same is good opportunity for candidates to bet on themselves and be able to present better percentages in public opinion, although we know that, in this business of the game, who’s winning is the most risk.
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